There’s a scene in Mel Brooks’ tremendous comedy ‘Blazing Saddles’ – (no, not the one with the beans around the campfire, although that is just hilarious) – where they focus on the first ever black pioneer family heading alone across the plains in their very own covered wagon. A tribe of Red Indians (or to be PC, I should say Native American Indians), come charging down from the hills and surround them, so they decide to keep galloping around in circles by themselves as there are no other wagons to support them. This so baffles the Red Indian chief (played by none other than Mel Brooks himself, who being the comic nut that he is decided that his chief should speak in Yiddish), that after considering the lonely wagon and its three harmless occupants he declares in a booming voice “Loz ‘em gehen” (Let them go), and they escape almost certain death and ride off into the sunset. 

That scene sprang to mind as I was struggling to find a movie-based analogy for the situation that Israel finds itself in at this very moment.

I’m not suggesting for one moment that Israel is a wholly innocent player in what is a very dangerous game that is being played out at an increasingly alarming pace in our region, but as we look around, in view of the events of the last two weeks, there is a feeling that we should start circling the wagons pretty quickly as things could start to get just a little bit ‘lively’ over here. As I’m in movie-buff mode today, let’s quote Bette Davis in the 1950 movie ‘All About Eve’ as she stood on the staircase at her cocktail party well aware there was going to be trouble. “Fasten your seatbelts” said Bette,” it’s going to be a bumpy night!”

So why do I feel that we could be in for a bump or two in the near future? Well, let’s see. We’ll start with Lebanon on our northern border, a country that rarely manages more than a vague degree of political stability for very long due to the all pervasive infiltration of Iranian and Syrian-backed militias, most notably Hizbollah.

When Hizbollah pulled out of PM Hariri’s coalition government last week, Hariri still had enough mandates to govern as long as the Lebanese Druze party stayed on side. It seemed a reasonable bet that they would, as their leader Walid Jumblat had long condemned Hizbollah as a terrorist organization. Imagine the shockwaves then when Jumblat jumped ship and joined forces with Hizbollah. Has he done this because he has suddenly become a radical Islamist sympathiser, or is he trying to be pragmatic, fearing a backlash against the Lebanese Druze if they had stood by the secular government? Who knows? The government has now collapsed, there are massive demonstrations on the streets of Beirut, and Lebanon could be headed for another civil war that could easily spill over on to our northern border.

The stunning speed of the revolution in Tunisia has triggered off a wave of copycat reactions across the Arab world, in particular in North Africa. There’s big trouble in Algeria, whilst Egypt, which has been in the iron grip of Hosnei Mubarak for 30 years, has seen the worst protests against the government for decades. If the ‘Pharoah’ (as Mubarak is known throughout the region) is deposed, it raises the possibility of opening the way for a fundamentalist Islamic government in Egypt, although at the time of writing (and things are changing by the hour not even by the day), it is Egyptian crowds calling for democratic change and not an Islamic republic who have been forcing the issue. The fear though is that even if they and their figurehead Mohammed El Baradie, (the former head of International Atomic Energy Agency of nuclear inspectors) succeed in forcing regime change, it might easily prove to be the opening of the door to the Islamists   who would be sympathetic, indeed supportive of the terrorist government of Hamas in Gaza, on Israel’s western border.

The potential for regime change in Egypt would come as a huge tonic for Hamas who are coming under increasing internal pressure, particularly since recent reports emanating from Gaza allege that more than ever, the overwhelming amount of humanitarian aid being sent to Gaza by the UN and others is being confiscated on arrival by Hamas who then sell it to their own people at extortionate prices. (Remember to remind the next Hamas tin-rattler of that when you see him touting for a few bucks in your local shopping centre).

Hamas has also been coming under increasing international pressure following the recent upsurge of rocket-fire coming from Gaza and hitting Israeli targets in the south on an almost daily basis – to which Israel has responded by eliminating a number of the perpetrators. The other lifeline thrown to Hamas is by the Qatar-based news station Al Jazeera and their expose of ‘The Palestine Papers’, a host of apparently genuine internal memos that have been leaked to the flagship Arab TV station, which suggest that the far more moderate and secular Palestinian Authority in the West Bank was prepared to drop a number of their key demands in the peace and land negotiations with Israel. Al Jazeera have sold the story as one of treachery by the PA, rather than it being scene as a pragmatic series of negotiations with the former Israeli government of Ehud Olmert, who had also been prepared to make unprecedented concessions.

The reaction to ‘The Palestine Papers’ has been one of street demonstrations in Ramallah (in the West Bank), as doubtless Hamas supporters and radical Islamists attempt to destabilize the government of Mahmoud Abbas and make thinly veiled threats to overthrow Fatah and bring Hamas and their like to power. If things go pear-shaped in the West Bank, Israel could find itself in a fight that would be only a matter of a few kilometres from major Israeli population centres.

One of Israel’s few allies in the region for the last 20 years or so has been Jordan, (although this relationship has been particularly strained under the present Israeli government), but now, in the wake of the unrest in Tunisia, Algeria, Lebanon and Egypt, there have been street demonstrations in Amman on a scale not seen before. With more than half the Jordanian population being Palestinian, eyebrows have been raised at the not impossible scenario of regime change in the Hashemite Kingdom that has since the late 1940’s been ruled first by the family of the last King Hussein, (who signed the peace accords with Yitzhak Rabin at Camp David in 1994), and now his son, King Abdullah.

These are very dangerous times in the Middle East, a situation not helped by the fact that Israel has one of the most right-wing, blinkered and internationally unpopular governments in its history. Binyamin Netanyahu has done nothing to advance the peace process. His racist and bigoted foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman, (who might mercifully be about to be charged with corruption and removed from his job), has been a disaster on the world stage, and his alliance with the pathetic former PM and now-former Labour party leader and professional turncoat Ehud Barak, is a national embarrassment.

But if there is one thing that might knock a bit of sense into this rag-tag bunch of opportunist who go under the name of the present Israeli government, and that might make them act coherently and for the good of the nation, it would be the threat of war on one or more fronts, and sadly that threat is looming larger and larger in the rear mirror by the day.

I am reliably informed (from a very good source) that Israel’s ‘Iron Dome’ system will work and will protect the country in the event of an attack from a multitude of different weapons coming from all points of the compass. Israel has invested billions in this system that intercepts incoming missiles well before they reach their targets. I had been very sceptical about the ability of the ‘Iron Dome’ to do ‘what it says on the tin’, but after a somewhat heated exchange with reliable sources ‘in the know’, I have been persuaded that if the situation demands it, Israel’s new 21st-century technology will prove a major barrier to those wishing to fulfil Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad’s wettest dream, and see “Israel blown off the face of the map”.

So there’s a cheery update from this latest ‘Middle East Missive’. You’re all in the picture now, so there’s no chance of being able to plead ignorance if and when the fireworks kick off over here. Personally, I suspect that the many internal struggles that are revealing themselves in a multitude of countries in the region will first have to be played out before the attention of these nations is turned on us here in Israel.  So for the time being (however long that time proves to be), there may be nothing to actually worry about. So there’s a mildly optimistic thought to end with.

Returning to the movie theme, let’s sign off with an appropriately upbeat song from our friends Monty Python and their outstanding 1979 film ‘The Life of Brian’. All together now....

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It was around this time last year that I began to develop pangs of regret that I no longer frequent the racing world that provided me with a decent living and a fairly colourful lifestyle for more than two decades. Well, the pangs are back again as all the big trial races for the superb Cheltenham Festival (March 15-18) are being run at present and, probably due to the paucity of racing here in Israel, I feel very much on the sidelines. 

Last year I failed miserably to provide my regular readers (yes, there are one or two brave souls still out there) with a winner to help pay the Chanukah/Christmas credit card bills, so I have gone to even greater lengths than normal to hopefully provide you with not one, but two ‘sure things’, both of which have an Israeli/Jewish connection.

Let’s start with the Cheltenham Gold Cup, truly a breathtaking sporting spectacle. A race dominated in recent seasons by champion trainer Paul Nicholls with the mighty pair of Kauto Star and Denman, until last year when a horse called Imperial Commander, trained by the well hyphenated Nigel Twiston-Davies, beat the pair of them. Where would the world of horse racing be without its hyphens? There was a time when I used to wonder whether a hyphenated addition to my name might advance me into more exalted racing circles. How does Paul Collingham-Alster sound (Collingham being my last abode in the UK before I defected)? Or how about Paul Alster-Verbolofsky, adding my paternal grandmother’s maiden name? Would either of those monikers have got me any closer to a Jockey Club membership? Somehow, I very much doubt it.

But here are not one, but two Jewish hyphenated names that might just top ‘em all on Cheltenham Gold Cup Day. Racehorse owner/breeder Robert Waley-Cohen and his son Sam have already produced one big surprise when their horse Long Run beat Kauto Star to win the King George VI Chase at Kempton Park last week. Sam Waley-Cohen (28) owns a chain of upmarket dental practices. What makes him pretty exceptional is that he is an amateur rider and not a professional, competing (thanks to his father’s horses), at the highest level of the sport. He might not ride quite as well as champion jockey and 'BBC Sports Personality of the Year' Tony McCoy, or the elegant Irishman Ruby Walsh, but he is a very competent rider who has enjoyed tremendous success at previous Cheltenham Festivals and at Aintree, where he twice won over those awesome fences on his dad’s Katarino.

The Waley-Cohen’s are a high society family who are very active in raising funds for cancer research, particularly so following the death from cancer of Sam’s younger brother Thomas, who sadly died in 2004 at the age of just 20. The family is always coming up with innovative ways to raise funds and famously held the much-publicized 'toffs' roller-disco at which the now future Queen of England, Kate Middleton, (a close friend of the family), came along wearing hot pants (see home page photo) and caused something of a paparazzi sensation!

Robert Waley-Cohen’s grandfather was a senior figure in the British Shell oil company, a friend of Winston Churchill, and chairman of London’s United Synagogue. The present day Robert is the boss of the Alliance Medical organisation and, as we have noted, is a very successful owner and breeder of jumps racehorses. I met him on a couple of occasions, and had the pleasure of speaking with him moments after a horse of his called The Dragon Master had won at Sandown at odds of 100/1. He seemed a very likeable guy and very down to earth. (Then again, who wouldn't be in top form after bagging a 100/1 winner!)

Robert’s latest star Long Run is a top class horse who, having won at Kempton, is now second-favourite to win the Gold Cup. It would be amazing for a horse ridden by a Jewish amateur jockey to win the most coveted prize in such a professional sport (even more so than the Grand National), but I think Sam Waley-Cohen has a tremendous chance. His current odds of 7/1 may well be much shorter on the day, so if you like a wager, I’d say ‘get on now’.

The second leg of our Jewish horsey double actually runs on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival (Long Run goes on the fourth and last day), and is a leading candidate for the Champion Hurdle. Menorah, named after the seven branched candelabrum that was lit daily in the Temple in Jerusalem more than two millennia ago and was adopted in 1948 as the symbol of the modern State of Israel, is also a very talented racehorse trained by Philip Hobbs at Minehead, in Somerset. I believe that the six-year-old gelding has a seriously good chance of winning the hurdles crown on March 15. (Mind you, I thought that of Punjabi last year and he's still running!)

I’m not quite sure how owner Diana Whateley came to give Menorah his name or what, if any, her connection is to Israel. I really believe though that she has a very good chance of picking up the winners’ trophy in a couple of months time with her fast improving horse. He has already proved how much he loves racing at the unique Cheltenham track, last year winning the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle under a great ride from the excellent Richard Johnson. 

Menorah won two big trial races for the Champion Hurdle earlier this season (both at Cheltenham) and still looks to be getting better and better. He is a 5/1 chance to kick off my double at the meeting which, put in simple terms, means that if you were to bet £1 on Menorah and Long Run winning, (and they both do the business), you would receive a very handsome return of £48. That’s far better than wasting your hard earned pound on the 14,000,000/1 chance of winning the lottery, and it’s a great deal more fun cheering on your two fancies.

So fingers are crossed (a Christian expression for this pluralistic blog), that Menorah and Long Run, owners Robert Waley-Cohen and Diana Whateley, and jockeys Sam Waley-Cohen and Richard Johnson, can give us all something to cheer whilst I watch on from a corner of the world where the sport is now all but defunct but, from where, thanks to another big racing fan, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum, and his Dubai racing channel, (we’re all brothers in sport remember), I very much hope to be able to follow the action as it happens.

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There have been so many newsworthy events here in Israel in recent weeks that I could rattle on ‘ad infinitum’ about everything from the collapse of the Labour party to the dispute with Lebanon over offshore gas reserves, but I prefer to focus on Moshe Katsav, former President of Israel and now a convicted rapist. 

It’s not the most regular occurrence for me be able to state that I am categorically and unequivocally proud of something that has happened here in Israel, but the whole process that led to the investigation, the trial, and the eventual conviction of the man who occupied the most respected position in the land, has been one that I believe is a shining example for the whole world, and I really mean, the whole world, to follow.

Katsav, a man who rose from abject poverty after his family was forced from Persia in the 1950’s, who lived in a tent during his early years in Israel, who became one of the youngest mayor’s in the country’s history when at the age of just 21 he was chosen to represent the people of the poor development town of Kiryat Malachi, who later rose to be chosen as a Member of the Knesset, a government minister, and then, the most prestigious and highly respected office of all, (far more so than that of Prime Minister), to be the President of the State of Israel, dishonoured the great office bestowed upon him. But, unlike most other men of power in the free and ‘not-so-free’ world, he has been brought to book for his crimes and he is going to pay heavily for his indiscretions.

People looking at Israel might easily jump to the conclusion that this is a corrupt, morally bankrupt society, so often are reports heard trumpeting the latest minster or even Prime Minister to be under investigation for corruption or other potentially prisonable offences. But maybe, before jumping on the bandwagon of ridiculing and berating Israel, they should pause for a moment to ask themselves two questions: 1) Do they honestly believe that politicians and men/or women of power in their particular country never commit acts of a criminal nature, and 2) do they honestly believe that the courts and judicial systems in their country are strong enough and, (most importantly), sufficiently independent of political influence to convict the highest person in the land?

Ask yourself that very question right now. And, before you answer it, think of all the politicians and people of power that are believed to have been up to no good, but who still haughtily go about their business with an ever-present air of righteous pomposity.

Let’s start with Israel’s immediate neighbours, the Arab States. Is their one Arab country you can name that genuinely has, or even comes close to having, an independent judiciary? I think we can take that as a resounding ‘no’, so let’s move on to Africa. Is there an African state where those guilty of bare-faced corruption don’t get away with their crimes? Even South Africa, seen as one of the most progressive of all countries on that continent in the post-Apartheid era, has a president whose record of personal conduct and dubious financial dealings leaves a stain on his nation’s reputation.

Try getting one of the top politicians in South America to face a judge free of political influence and you might well find yourself up against it. What about Europe? Well, Silvio Berlusconi is the obvious first port of call. Do you believe that the Italian judiciary has been free of political influence and is genuinely independent in investigating matters of massive financial irregularities and sexual misconduct on the part of the most powerful man in the country?

Last week the first of a likely stream of British MP’s and former MP’s was sent down for a stay at ‘Her Majesty’s Pleasure’ for his deception in the expanses scandal. At least the Brits have at last started dealing with such matters, but much worse deceptions have been pulled by British politicians over the years and been smoothed over before police and other investigative authorities could get a look in. It’s always been like that. More than a hundred years ago PM William Gladstone was extraordinarily brazen in his invitations to London prostitutes to visit No.10 Downing Street – via the front door and not the tradesmen’s entrance, (so to speak)! Nobody did anything about it, and meekly accepted the PM’s explanation that he was giving bible readings to the young ladies. Of course he was.

There have been so many ‘hushed up’ scandals involving major American politicians it’s hard to know where to start. The late Senator Edward Kennedy’s role in the death of Mary Jo Kopechne at Chappaquidick in 1969 - for which he amazingly received just a two-month suspended sentence - stands out amongst a number of distasteful acts by supremely powerful US politicians and men of power.  In defence of the US, presidents Richard Nixon, who was brought to book over the ‘Watergate Scandal’, and Bill Clinton, who lost all credibility over the Lewinsky affair, both as a result of rigorous reporting by the free US press, got their comeuppance (although the latter’s wasn’t a criminal act, just one of moral bankruptcy), but many other men of power have managed to get away scot free.

So back to Katsav, the first openly religious president of Israel, and now the first to be brought to book by his own judiciary for crimes against female staff and colleagues, as well as for the obstruction of justice. Back in April 2008, Katsav had the chance to accept a plea bargain which would have allowed him to only be charged with minor offences, but such was his belief that his influence and power was sufficient to ensure that he could not be found guilty, that, after advice from his own legal counsel, he rejected the deal.

The trial was a media sensation, even though it was conducted away from the glare of live transmissions. At the end of December 2010 the decision was unanimously reached by the three presiding judges that Katsav was guilty; guilty of rape, guilty of harassing a witness, guilty of sexual harassment, and guilty of forcibly committing an indecent act.

The pressure brought to bear on the three still publicly unidentified women who brought the charges against the former president can barely be imagined. They were very, very brave indeed. Women’s rights group were jubilant, social justice campaigners were ecstatic, and revealingly, the overwhelmingly majority of ordinary Israelis, (despite the shame he brought to the office of president), were pleased with the verdict as well. Even in this ridiculously macho society, Katsav’s peccadillo’s proved beyond the pale.

This trial would not have taken place in most countries of the world, not because they don’t have men like Katsav amongst their power brokers, but because the system wouldn’t allow it. And in those few countries that would have had the guts to try the holder of the highest office of power, very few, if any, would have overcome all the obstacles placed in their path over which the Israeli prosecutors eventually triumphed.

Although his successor Shimon Peres has done a great deal to recover the respect that deservedly should accompany the role, it is still terribly sad that Moshe Katsav brought the office of President of Israel into disrepute. Katsav’s conviction however, is a triumph for Israeli justice, a benchmark to which other nations should aspire, and something of which all Israeli people should be very proud.

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Alcohol has never been a significant feature of everyday Jewish life, whether it be in the Diaspora or in Israel itself – although since the mass Russian migration to Israel 20 years ago vodka has almost advanced to be the national drink! Coming from a virtually alcohol-free household, the attractions of the grape or the grain were far outstripped by Coca Cola or a nice pot of tea! Wine was produced only on Rosh Hashanah or Pesach, and even then it was that ghastly Palwin stuff that tasted more like sugared medicine.

Once I was old enough to go to a pub I found I hated the taste of beer, was indifferent to wine, but did come to quite enjoy whisky and brandy. This penchant was fuelled by my career as an on-course racing journalist as in the Press Room at many a racecourse in the north of England a selection of alcoholic beverages would invariably have been laid on by the racecourse management (along with a few sarnies and the occasional Lancashire hotpot), in order to ensure that nothing unnecessarily untoward might be reported about the day’s proceedings.

Sometimes only four or five hacks would turn up, and at the end of the day we would have a mini-raffle to see who would get what to take home. Whenever my name came out first I would invariably plump for the whisky. Champagne became another popular choice of mine when covering the showcase meetings like York, Chester or Doncaster, but I steered clear of the beer and the wine. I soon found myself with an enviable home drinks cabinet, a collection that was added to on a regular basis on almost every Scottish tour I enjoyed whilst with the Press Association. Driving (sometimes alone) through back roads in the border country or Grampian areas, there would often be a small sign advertising a local distillery. If I had the time, I would make a detour and sample the hooch, often coming home with a bottle or two as a keepsake.

Despite all the above though, I was no more than an occasional drinker. That drinking habit became almost extinct after I got ‘wasted’ at my 30th birthday party and have never felt quite so rough as I did when eventually I managed to separate my eyelids sometime the following afternoon. To make matters worse, I was due to be doing a gig with my band that very evening and by 9pm was still unable to move from my pit. Dragged to a cold shower by a flatmate and minutes later poured into the back seat of my guitarist’s car, I recall little of the performance, other than anecdotal evidence that suggests I played better than I ever have before or since! Therein lies the lesson.

Fast forward to my move to Israel in 2007 and to a part of the country famous for its wine. The area around Zichron Yaakov is often referred to in tourist handbooks as ‘Little Tuscany’; beautiful views across the Med, green forests, and lots of wineries. The Carmel winery is in the centre of town, a number of small boutique wineries occupy sites around the main street, local cafes overflow with all sorts of different produce from Zichron wineries, as well as from Binyamina wines, Tishbi and many, many more.

It seemed rather bad manners not to at least go on a guided tour or two and sample the goods (so to speak), and ever so slowly I’ve found myself beginning to develop a taste for the grape. That interested has been heightened somewhat of late as I have a good friend who produces his own wine from vines harvested from the ‘foothills’ of the Golan. Paz and I had dinner with him and his wife last week, and by hell he is turning out some seriously good stuff.

Adjacent to his home is a brewing shed that reminds me of one of those southern states moonshine labs. It’s all very scientific. Everything must be hermetically sealed, kept at the right temperature, tested on a regular basis (I’ve offered myself as the guinea pig for that job), and treated with loving care. He worked like a donkey to harvest the grapes and have them pressed, but the results speak for themselves. Remember the name Bar Maor – there will be something very special in any bottle carrying his name in years to come.

When you think of good wine you automatically focus on Italy, France, South Africa, Australia, Chile and various other locations around the globe, but Israel is not just producing good wine in my uneducated opinion, it’s being taken very seriously now by international experts. Only a few months ago, the leading international competition, the Decanter World Wine Awards, handed the International prize (the top gong), to the Carmel Winery’s Kayoumi Single Vineyard Shiraz 2006. In summarizing their decision the international judging panel declared, “This is a sensational achievement. By triumphing over more noted giants around the world, this cracking wine has turned in one of the performances at this year’s – and indeed any other – DWWA.”

British wine critic Oz Clarke also included two Israeli wineries in his top recommendations for 2010 – Domaine de Castle and Yatir. Clarke added that “Israel is now on the world wine map.”

So I’m definitely in the right place. All I need to do now is educate my palate and be able to define a good wine from a bad one, and there’s only one way to gain the necessary experience. Be it red, white or rose, Cabernet Sauvignon, Muscat, Pinot Grigio, Chardonet or any other type of plonk, I shall manfully battle my way through over the next year and do justice to the superb wine being produced all around me.

Sometimes, Israel’s not such a bad place to be.

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I hope you had an enjoyable New Year’s Eve and doubtless, like me, you’re looking forward to only the best of times ahead in 2011. Let’s hope the next 12 months prove to be safe, healthy and enjoyable for us all.

Here in the Middle East you can never be quite sure what’s around the corner, but here are my thoughts on what might well happen in Israel between now and the end of December. Let’s start at the very beginning, with politics, for, as Julie Andrews famously said to those six little snipes dressed in gingham curtain fabric, “That’s a very good place to start.”

Will the present coalition remain in power for another 12 months? If I was a betting man, (and I’m sure many of you know that I am), I would say that it is most unlikely. Odds against, as they say in the gaming trade. Bibi, (Binyamin Netanyahu to those outside of the ‘Promised Land’), will do just about anything to cling on to the vestiges of power. He really does like the letters PM in front of his name. As I noted a number of times over the last year, he is prepared to cut a deal with just about any party, (no matter how diametrically opposed to his own ideology), just to stay in the top job. He makes Britain’s Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg look principled!

The cracks that were there in Bibi’s government last January are now gaping chasms; his bitter rivalry and lack of respect for his Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman is a standing joke in Jerusalem – (mind you, so is Lieberman); Bibi’s cow-towing to the Sephardi religious party Shas that has seen him divert funds to their followers in order to maintain their vote alongside him in Cabinet cannot go unchecked much longer; his crystal clear problems in trying to forge a political alliance with the Labour party and its leader Ehud Barak must come to a head some time soon. All these tinder box relationships look set to burst into flames at any point in 2011 and force the dissolution of the current government.

I fully expect Izhak ‘Bougy’ Herzog to challenge Ehud Barak for leadership of the Labour party. From a distinguished political family, Herzog is seen by some as appealing to the electorate as a genuine politician of strong convictions, but others see him as being somewhat dull and frankly, a bit of a bore. The latter may be true, but I suspect he will command a great deal of grass roots support from Labour activists and could oust the generally unpopular Barak before the year is out.

I’m afraid that the signs are ominous that the power broker that is Shas could also see a change of leadership in the next few months, with the under-fire Interior Minister Eli Yishai, (the man held directly responsible by many for the disastrous local response to the horrific Carmel fires), being forced out in favour of rehabilitated jailbird Arye Deri – the man who was ‘sent down’ for three years for corruption after pocketing $155,000 in bribes. He eventually served just 22 months and was released early “for good behaviour” – which could be interpreted as meaning that he managed to resist the temptation to dangle his sticky fingers into the prison tuck shop petty cash! Deri seems to be the chief beneficiary of the waning confidence in Yishai and might well return to the top table, a comeback that will doubtless delight his old pal ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu.

What about the Middle East conflict? Well here’s a racing certainty; it won’t be resolved in 2011, or for a very long time afterwards, if ever.  Rumours abound of Hezbollah spoiling for a fight sometime in the summer, especially if it distracts attention from the long awaited report that is due to implicate the South Lebanon-based terrorist group in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. The publication of the committee’s findings have been continually delayed, almost certainly as a result of the potentially devastating blow it would deal to Hizbollah and their fragile arrangement with the governing parties in Lebanon. A nice bit of ‘argee-bargee’ on the northern border with Israel would quickly redirect everybody’s attentions away from the findings of the report and concentrate minds on the external enemy, rather than the far more insidious threat posed by the militia to Lebanese democracy.

Despite their propaganda over the last few weeks that intimated that they are looking for a way to calm tensions on their border, Hamas are also spoiling for a fight in Gaza having allowed a significant number of missiles to be launched into southern Israel since the start of December. They’ve taken a leaf out of the Sinn Fein book of the 1980’s and ‘90’s, publicly condemning such acts and distancing themselves from the missile firers and potential bombers, whilst in private almost certainly continuing to show the green light to the militias, just as Sinn Fein did to the IRA. ‘Oh it’s nothing to do with us, folks, we’re a legitimate political party with no connection to the military men’. Yeah, right.  There is a sense in some quarters here that patience within the Israeli military is running thin.  I fear another flare up on the Gaza border that will doubtless be reported as unnecessary Israeli aggression, rarely considering the misery that has rained down on residents of towns like Sderot for much of the last eight years.

The Palestinian Authority in the West Bank meanwhile has supposedly uncovered a planned coup d’etat. There have been numerous rumblings of discontent from Ramallah of late, allegations of inherent corruption amongst the PA leaders continually abound, and all this despite the local economy doing noticeably well and living standards rising rapidly. All these ‘distractions’ and ‘local difficulties’ will make it very unlikely that any agreement, (no matter how basic), is reached over the next 12 months between Mahmoud Abbas and Netanyahu.

I also reckon that President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt is on something of a ‘sticky wicket’ in that his health is seemingly deteriorating pretty fast. His grip on the former Israeli enemy, but now long-time partner in peace, has been so strong and totalitarian since he inherited the job from the assassinated Anwar Sadat in 1981, that his sudden departure from the scene could very easily destabilize the whole region and give the Islamists in Egypt the impetus to bid for power. It could all get very messy indeed.

Other predictions. Well, there’s going to be a very serious water crisis with the current Israeli winter falling far short of the amounts of rain needed to go even a small way to replenishing rapidly diminishing supplies. This dry winter, following one of the hottest summers on record, is of huge concern over here and could have a serious impact on food prices, especially those of fruit and vegetables over the next few months.

As mentioned in a previous blog, I really believe the Israeli housing market bubble will start to wobble, if not burst, by mid-summer. People are beginning to come to their senses and realize that the prices being extracted for real estate here, (some of which have risen 50% in the last three years), are simply unsustainable. The Bank of Israel has already raised interest rates a couple of times in the last few months in a bid to put a lid on price rises and chairman Stanley Fischer has made it clear he will continue to raise rates until the market cools down. If you are the owner of a property in Israel I believe that this is the time to sell. And I’m not just saying that. I’m so convinced that the market is at, or is close its peak, that my home is going on the market right now. Take the money and run boys – while you can.

The further discovery of massive gas fields in Israeli waters is one potentially hugely favourable economic feature of the coming year and beyond. If media reports are accurate, the Tamar and Leviathan fields will be the second and third biggest in the world, making North Sea gas for example, look like, well, a drop in the ocean. The only problem is that the private investors who discovered the gas don’t want to pay the appropriate taxes to the government, so it might all end up in court and no one will benefit (except the lawyers), for a very long time.

A couple of other quickies, (so to speak). I can guarantee that Israel’s football team won’t qualify for any major tournament during the next year, or at any time soon. Too much in-fighting and too many moderate players is no recipe for success. But on a more positive note, I truly believe that Israel will achieve its first horse racing success in England in 2011.  As racing manager to Israel’s Rayzner Stud, whose horses Royal Torbo and Royal Tiger are in the care of the excellent English racehorse trainer George Baker, (now cosily ensconced in the historic Whitsbury training establishment in Hampshire,) I can all but assure you that Royal Torbo, in particular, will get his head in front – at last! 

Indeed, his head was in front at the final fence at Towcester a few weeks ago when, (having lead all the way through the two mile contest), he only had to jump the last to win. You guessed it. He snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by blundering and unseating his rider! Could that be seen as a metaphor for Israel itself; so capable, yet invariably managing to blunder away golden opportunities! Let’s hope not. 2011 will be our year!!

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