I’m afraid to say that last year I was uncannily close to the money with my predictions for the region so this time hope that one or two of my expectations are not realised for reasons that will soon become apparent.  Anyway, I’ve been busy polishing my crystal ball with the last can of Mr Sheen left since my emigration here nearly five years ago, and here they are my five predictions for Israel and the region in 2012.
 
1 – The simmering antagonism between secular and religiouIsraelis highlighted by a number of notable incidents in recent weeks looks set to come further to the boil and provide a headache for the authorities over the  next 12 months.
 
Regular followers of this blog will know that I have many an axe to grind with certain sections of the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community here in Israel, many of whom I perceive as being disloyal and workshy, sponging off the state without giving anything back. That is not to say however that this is the case with all who dress in black, and I strongly condemn any unprovoked and unwarranted verbal and physical assaults that have been committed by secular activists. I would very much like to see those representing the ultra-Orthodox community speak out with a louder voice in condemning similarly unprovoked aggression on secular members of Israeli society before the situation escalates and might eventually get out of hand.
 
I fear that, (as is so often the case), the moderates on both sides and the voices of reason will be drowned out by those with a vested interest in stoking the flames of resentment.

 
2 – I fear that Iran may very well engineer some type of altercation with Israel following the embargo being placed on the sale of Iranian oil by the EU and others, if not directly, then with their proxy militias, Hamas in Gaza, and Hizbollah in Lebanon. Such an escalation would then give Iran an excuse to drag Israel into the blame game for what would certainly be a massive rise in the cost of crude oil per barrel, a situation that could result in world financial markets being put under even more pressure than is already the case.

 
3 – The arrival of the first gas from the Israeli fields discovered a few years ago off the Mediterranean coast will move very much closer as Israel for the first time in its 64 year history is on the verge of being self-sufficient in the energy department. Having been reliant on foreign oil for so long, Israel set out some years ago to develop alternative energy sources.

The discovery of the world’s second biggest natural gas deposits in Israeli waters, the rapid growth in more efficient solar technologies, together with Shai Agassi’s revolutionary fully electric cars and the network of electric refuelling stations his Better Place organization has established throughout the country, will go a long way towards giving Israelis more self-confidence that they can eventually rid themselves of their reliance on oil from countries such as Egypt, whose pipeline into Israeli has been bombed by Islamist radicals and disrupted at least a half dozen times since the fall of Mubarak.

 
4 – It pains me to say it, but despite my prediction that the coalition government led by Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu would fall during 2011, the signs are that the alliance of Likud, the Russian Immigrant Party, the remnants of the Labour party and the religious parties such as Shas and others, does likely to hold together at least until the end of 2012. What seems equally certain is that the slow erosion of the independence of the judiciary and other issues connected to freedom of the press etc will remain one of the hottest local topics and sources of heated debate and protest in the year ahead. 

 
5 – And finally, although the final figures have yet to be officially declared there is little doubt that 2011 saw the largest number of tourists visiting Israel since the state was established in 1948. Despite the often unflattering portrayal of the country by many branches of the mass media it is reassuring to see that so many people are still able to think for themselves and continue to come here to enjoy the unique nature of this tiny, but remarkable land. 
 
Significantly, it appears that the biggest rise has come in the number of Christian visitors to the Holy Land who have become increasingly  supportive of the Israeli people and their struggle for survival often against  hostile neighbours. I also found it particularly touching that amongst those  Christian visitors to the country the highest number come from none other than Germany, a lesson that hopefully other nations might learn that after the terrible persecution of their Jewish population two generations before, Germans want to support Israel and are proud to have overcome the initial negativity felt towards them here and have made Israel one of their most popular tourist destinations. 
 
Despite Israel being a far from cheap place to visit I anticipate that with improving tourist facilities and infrastructure and better standards of service year-on-year, the number of tourists visiting the country in 2012 will break all previous records.


 
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