I’m afraid to say that last year I was uncannily close to the money with my predictions for the region so this time hope that one or two of my expectations are not realised for reasons that will soon become apparent.  Anyway, I’ve been busy polishing my crystal ball with the last can of Mr Sheen left since my emigration here nearly five years ago, and here they are my five predictions for Israel and the region in 2012.
 
1 – The simmering antagonism between secular and religiouIsraelis highlighted by a number of notable incidents in recent weeks looks set to come further to the boil and provide a headache for the authorities over the  next 12 months.
 
Regular followers of this blog will know that I have many an axe to grind with certain sections of the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community here in Israel, many of whom I perceive as being disloyal and workshy, sponging off the state without giving anything back. That is not to say however that this is the case with all who dress in black, and I strongly condemn any unprovoked and unwarranted verbal and physical assaults that have been committed by secular activists. I would very much like to see those representing the ultra-Orthodox community speak out with a louder voice in condemning similarly unprovoked aggression on secular members of Israeli society before the situation escalates and might eventually get out of hand.
 
I fear that, (as is so often the case), the moderates on both sides and the voices of reason will be drowned out by those with a vested interest in stoking the flames of resentment.

 
2 – I fear that Iran may very well engineer some type of altercation with Israel following the embargo being placed on the sale of Iranian oil by the EU and others, if not directly, then with their proxy militias, Hamas in Gaza, and Hizbollah in Lebanon. Such an escalation would then give Iran an excuse to drag Israel into the blame game for what would certainly be a massive rise in the cost of crude oil per barrel, a situation that could result in world financial markets being put under even more pressure than is already the case.

 
3 – The arrival of the first gas from the Israeli fields discovered a few years ago off the Mediterranean coast will move very much closer as Israel for the first time in its 64 year history is on the verge of being self-sufficient in the energy department. Having been reliant on foreign oil for so long, Israel set out some years ago to develop alternative energy sources.

The discovery of the world’s second biggest natural gas deposits in Israeli waters, the rapid growth in more efficient solar technologies, together with Shai Agassi’s revolutionary fully electric cars and the network of electric refuelling stations his Better Place organization has established throughout the country, will go a long way towards giving Israelis more self-confidence that they can eventually rid themselves of their reliance on oil from countries such as Egypt, whose pipeline into Israeli has been bombed by Islamist radicals and disrupted at least a half dozen times since the fall of Mubarak.

 
4 – It pains me to say it, but despite my prediction that the coalition government led by Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu would fall during 2011, the signs are that the alliance of Likud, the Russian Immigrant Party, the remnants of the Labour party and the religious parties such as Shas and others, does likely to hold together at least until the end of 2012. What seems equally certain is that the slow erosion of the independence of the judiciary and other issues connected to freedom of the press etc will remain one of the hottest local topics and sources of heated debate and protest in the year ahead. 

 
5 – And finally, although the final figures have yet to be officially declared there is little doubt that 2011 saw the largest number of tourists visiting Israel since the state was established in 1948. Despite the often unflattering portrayal of the country by many branches of the mass media it is reassuring to see that so many people are still able to think for themselves and continue to come here to enjoy the unique nature of this tiny, but remarkable land. 
 
Significantly, it appears that the biggest rise has come in the number of Christian visitors to the Holy Land who have become increasingly  supportive of the Israeli people and their struggle for survival often against  hostile neighbours. I also found it particularly touching that amongst those  Christian visitors to the country the highest number come from none other than Germany, a lesson that hopefully other nations might learn that after the terrible persecution of their Jewish population two generations before, Germans want to support Israel and are proud to have overcome the initial negativity felt towards them here and have made Israel one of their most popular tourist destinations. 
 
Despite Israel being a far from cheap place to visit I anticipate that with improving tourist facilities and infrastructure and better standards of service year-on-year, the number of tourists visiting the country in 2012 will break all previous records.


 

I noted with much interest a report in today's Haaretz newspaper about a Hassidic woman who caused uproar on a bus in Ashdod earlier this week when she took a seat on the second row from the front and refused to proceed to the rear of the bus where it is 'taken as read' that she should sit in isolation form the religious male passengers.


The bus was a regular 451 service from Ashdod to Jerusalem and the 51-year-old lady concerned, one Yocheved Horowitz, steadfastly refused to be intimated by the male religious passengers on the vehicle who attempted to 'shame' her into joining the rest of her sex in what is effectively a segregated transport. Her actions, taken she said after a lifetime of compliance to the segregation within her society, have been referred to in various sections of the Israeli media as something of a 'Rosa Parks moment' - referring to the famously brave stance of the black lady passenger on a segregated bus in Montgomery, Alabama in 1955, who took her seat in a 'Whites Only section', a move that was one of the catalysts of the American Civil Rights movement.


Ms Horowitz's one-woman protest on the Ashdod line, is all the more admirable as she is the daughter of a prominent ultra-Orthodox French rabbi and her actions could have significant repercussions for her within her community. But having seen from the inside the prejudice against women in some segments of the ultra-Orthodox community, Horowitz decided that this was the right time to take a stand.


Her actions follow swiftly on the heels of a major incident earlier in the month when a secular woman took a seat on a public bus in what had been unofficially designated by the religious passengers as a 'male only area'. When she refused to move and give up her seat for a religious man there was uproar and she reportedly endured a volley of verbal abuse from the religious passengers. Tanya Rosenblit was then asked to leave the bus by the driver, but steadfastly refused. The driver then called the police who asked her to move to the back, but again Rosenblit refused. The incident made national headlines and caused a major debate in the Knesset and comment from the Prime Minister, together with support for Ms Rosenblit from secular female politicians from all shades of the political spectrum and from many well known faces in the Israeli media.


Israel is on a very slippery slope as the numbers of the ultra-Orthodox and Haredi communities rise rapidly.  Unless steps are taken to legislate against this unofficial segregation, what happened in Ashdod (and surely happens every day at various points of the compass in Israel), will happen again and again and eventually become the touch paper for genuine violence as secular and modern Orthodox Israelis fight for their rights to freedom of movement and expression in the face of a wave of repressive, archaic edicts from the 'Men in Black'.


On a loosely related theme, I received an email recently inviting me to a 15thanniversary reunion of my 'classmates' at the immigrant reception centre In Jerusalem, something I'm looking forward to. A great deal of water has flowed under the bridge since I arrived in the Holy City on that cold, winter's night to find myself billeted in a 10 x 8 room with iron bars on the windows, no heating, and no bedding. Ah, those were the days!


A few weeks after my arrival, (as I was getting to know the lie of the land), I took a bus from a religious neighbourhood and repeatedly attempted to take a seat alongside the religious male passengers, each and every one of whom either shuffled to the centre of the two-person seat in a quickly understood gesture that I wasn't welcome to sit next to them, or plainly and clearly told me that I wasn't welcome to sit in the vicinity. 


Wearing a T-shirt and jeans I was an obviously secular man and to them wasn't worthy of journeying alongside them. In those days, before the second Intifada, Palestinian labourers still earned a rust in and around Jerusalem and always rode at the rear of the buses never being welcome to sit anywhere else. Rather like the women of Ashdod these days and elsewhere on religious buses, the religious males sit in front and women and
'goyim' are expected to go to the back. 


Back in 1997, faced with the prospect of a fight with the religious passengers, I decided that I would actually prefer to sit amongst the Palestinians than alongside those racist, warped individuals who refused to make space for me and joined the Palestinian builders on the back seat engaged in polite conversation for the duration of the journey.


As we move on to 2012 and look forward to good health and happiness for all in the year ahead, I can't help but  think that the actions of Israel's ultra-religious community and the threat they pose from within Israeli society, is no less a danger to the only democracy in the Middle East than the threats of missile attacks, both conventional and nuclear, form our Arab neighbours.

One thing that is almost impossible to argue over when it comes to the Land of Israel is that this tiny country holds a special place in the heart of people from all three of the great religions as well as those from less well known faiths such as the Baha’i, the Druze, and the Samaritans, amongst many others.


Despite all the difficulties and security issues that so often are the focus of international media, religious tourism from both the Christian and Jewish communities as well as, to a lesser degree, the Muslim faith, have rarely failed to keep on coming to sample the unique sights, sounds and atmosphere of the Holy Land. Even atheists or agnostics rarely leave Israel
without feeling, at the very least, that they have ‘touched history’.

 
I remember guests coming over to Israel for my wedding more than 12 years ago who had never been before and who felt that the occasion of our
nuptials was sufficient cause to see for themselves what all the fuss was about.  I can honestly say that out of all the wedding guests as well as all those who have subsequently visited Paz and I over here and enjoyed trips to many parts of the country, no-one has ever failed to enjoy themselves and leave with a positive impression, and many have come back time and again.

 
I recall my great friends Sandra and Ted Nicholson, seasoned international travellers, arriving in Israel back in ’99 and being overwhelmed by the food, the humour, the bad driving, and in particular, the historic sites. I took them on a walking tour of the Old City of Jerusalem, entering through the Jaffa Gate then ambling through the seemingly endless Arab market all the way down to the Kotel, the Western Wall, via a stop at the stunning Church of the Holy Sepulchre where the five main branches of Christianity compete to demonstrate their image of Christ and have their own varied opinions of his teachings. 

 
From the frenzy of the Western wall with orthodox and secular Jews buzzing around the ancient stones that are the only remaining feature of Solomon’s Temple of more than 2000 years ago, passing by the ‘Golden Dome’ mosque, the building constructed to mark the spots where Allah is believed to have ascended to heaven, we wandered down to the Gardens of Gethsemane before returning via the Via Dolorosa, where we visited the Station of the Cross. It was towards the end of the day that archetypal Yorkshireman Ted, (for whom Christian belief has hardly been a mainstay of his daily routine), turned to his wife and said in quite an emotional voice, ‘Can you believe it, Sandra. We stood all those years singing ‘Jerusalem’ every day at school and in church and now we’re actually here. It’s bloody amazing!’

 
Only last week I took a couple of friends on a day trip to Sea of Galilee where we climbed up to the lookout point at the top of stunning Mount  Arbel overlooking the northern shore, before passing through Tiberias to witness the hundreds of baptisms at the River Jordan site where Christians from across the globe come to take to the water. It’s an impressive place, very well presented and invariably provokes really strong emotions as the realisation on so many black, white and brown faces that they are getting ever closer to their Lord rarely fails to draw me and any guests close to tears. 

 
We ended the day on a historic modern Jewish theme by visiting the first ever kibbutz at Deganya, but there are so many stunning places around
the Galilee that it comes as no surprise to learn that the Israeli Tourism
ministry has inaugurated the ‘Gospel Trail’, a walking path that covers a total of some 63kms from Nazareth to Capernaum and takes Christian pilgrims who want to follow in the footsteps of Jesus through many places with ever so familiar names that have become inextricably linked with his teachings.

 
I was surprised to learn that, according to the Jerusalem Post, of the record 3½ million tourists who came to Israel last year, 66% were Christians, and around half of them came specifically to take part in some form of pilgrimage. I feel able to say with some certainty that the new Gospel Trail is going to be a very big hit and will give even more people of all faiths the chance to sample a part of Israel that is truly stunning; rural Israel, where you get close to the real Israelis of the kibbutzes, and the small towns,  the villages, be they Jewish, Christian or Arab, and the amazing historic sites and antiquities that make this country so unique and so special to so many
people.

 
With all the never-ending chaos that seems to perpetually surround us, it is sometimes easy to lose sight of the fact that Israel really is a very, very special place. I count myself lucky these days to be able to call it ‘home’.

Here’s a question for you. Where doing aging rock and pop stars go to play to massive and enthusiastic crowds of fans when they’re closing in on their pension book? Well, Israel, of course.
 
Yes, Israel, more readily associated in the mind of many with conflict, danger, adverse headlines on ‘News at Ten’ and religious strife, is the venue of choice for many aging ravers that you might have thought had disappeared stage left and flounced off into the sunset, or who you were all but sure had ‘pegged it’ some time ago!

 
Could it be the blue skies, the outstanding falafel and shawarma, the Dead Sea spa treatments, divine inspiration in the Old City of Jerusalem, or
possibly the guarantee of filling a stadium full of western-style music fans,
that has tempted some of the biggest names in the business to perform here in 2011, and for a significant number to pledge to return having enjoyed the experience so much.

 
Well, whatever it is, if you are an Israeli of a certain age or are a young music lover who enjoys the sounds of the ‘60’s, 70’s 7 80’s, this year has seen you spoilt for choice as to which star of a bygone era to go and spend you shekels on. Here are just a few on this year’s roster to bring back floods of memories of dancing in the school disco, at your barmitzvah party, 
office ‘knees-up’ and gigs around the globe.

 
First up let’s introduce Deep Purple, the aging rockers having gone down a treat when they played two dates in May just down the road from me at the Roman amphitheatre at Cesarea, a stunning setting with a backdrop of the
Mediterranean Sea at sunset. They were sold out for both gigs. Echo & The
Bunnymen refused to cancel their appearance in late-April having been bombarded by hate mail and apparently produced a great show in the shadow of the iconic former power station at Reading on Tel Aviv’s northern side of the port.

 
Neil Sedaka, well into his late-60’s these days, he of the ‘Laughter In the Rain’, ‘Solitaire’and ‘Oh Carole’ packed them in at the Nokia Arena in Tel Aviv, only a week or two after another 50’s/60’s icon Paul Anka had bowled the crowds over at the same venue on his third concert in Israel in the last two years. To prove how much the man who wrote ‘My Way’, ‘Put Your Head On My Shoulder’ and many, many more, as they say, loves coming to Israel, he came back to do an encore performance on November 12 and sold that out as well. 

 
Duran Duran, Simon le Bon et al, strutted their stuff successfully during a high summer run that also included the likes of Roxette, Suede, Bryan Ferry and Roxy Music, and the rather more contemporary Moby, before the big hitters came to town.

 
Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the hottest tickets in Israel this summer were for none other than Bob Dylan, for Leonard Cohen, for Paul Simon, for Andrea Bocelli, and for Jose Carreras, and just when you thought the crinklies had withered away for the year I opened my weekend paper to see half-page ads for the forthcoming concerts of none other than every Latino grandmother’s wet dream Julio Iglesias, whilst Engelbert, he of the Humperdink, is to be prised from his bathchair, or is it given day release from the ‘Twilight Home for the Bewildered’ and will be doing it ‘one more time’ in a showstopping gig in downtown Tel Aviv.

 
Now, in case you think I’m being cynical about these aging and aged stars coming here, I’m not, I think it’s great. Many of these guys and girls can still perform the socks of the younger generation having spent decades
perfecting the art of live performance, as I myself can testifying having seen
the amazing Sir Paul McCartney in concert here a couple of years ago, (he
greeted the crowd in Hebrew, then to be politically correct also wished the
Muslims in the audience a happy Ramadan).

 
I was more than pleasantly surprised at a knockout gig I attended by no lesser a half-forgotten pop idol than Gilbert O’Sullivan, he of the knitted tank tops, frizzy hair and the flat cap. The biggest clue as to how nervous O’Sullivan was as to the reaction of an Israeli audience, was that for the first four numbers he didn’t speak a word. It was only when he made a
wisecrack comment to one of his band and it was met with laughter from the crowd, that the man who penned ‘Claire’,‘Alone Again (Naturally)’, ‘Get
Down’, and ‘Matrimony’ to name but a few, realised that the audience actually spoke English and enjoyed a joke. From that moment on he came to life and by the last number was giving it the old air guitar on top of his grand piano with a sixteen-piece backing band bringing the house down.


I’ve lost count of the number of stars who have performed here recently, including Madonna, who have gone on record as saying that playing
Israel is one of the great experiences of their career and that they are
overwhelmed by the warmth they feel from the Israeli audiences.

 
Whether you are a regular visitor or not, enjoying great music in stunning settings such as Bocelli’s opera concert on top of the Massada rock, in
Roman amphitheatres, in modern concert venues or in the big football stadiums, maybe you should come here yourself and enjoy the country with the backing track of some of your all-time favourite musicians, singers and their songs.

Well, there’s never a dull moment round these parts! The last week has seen Syria suspended from the Arab League; not that that will have any
affect whatsoever on the ongoing mass murder of their own citizens, a fact that seems to have barely caused a ripple in the corridors of international power. Imagine if Israel had been responsible for killing a couple of its own citizens. Every organization you had ever heard of and many you never thought existed would be picketing embassies, Marks & Spencer’s, demonstrating in Trafalgar Square and so forth, but when its Arabs killing their own nobody seems to care very much. It’s a disgrace, the indolence of the world community in letting Assad run riot against his own down-trodden people.  


Then there’s our old friends Iran, who got a bit of smack on the wrists for the IAEA who confirmed what we have all known for donkey’s years, that the Islamic Republic is indeed doing everything possible to acquire a
nuclear weapon. And nothing would give those in power in Tehran more pleasure than despatching in an easterly direction a shiny new warhead with a destination address of dear old Tel Aviv.

 
Did you notice the news reports over the last few days about some serious shenanigans at a ‘military depot’ near Tehran where apparently 17 people
were killed. It was reported to have been an unidentified explosion at a base of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Oh dear, I wonder how that could have happened? I suspect someone forget the no smoking rule and absent mindedly threw a fag end over a chicken wire fence that just happened to contain some materials that could have caused serious damage had they been despatched via aerial delivery to an undisclosed location with a Jewish-sounding address! Pure conjecture of course, but it was interesting that today’s Israeli daily Yediot Aharanot reports that sources in the US believe it was caused by an Iranian militant group who, the Americans claim, are working in cooperation with sources in Israel.

 
Listening to an Iranian opposition spokesman on Al Jazeera last week I was impressed by his argument that the only way to avoid war in the region is for Israel and others with a lot to lose in the area adjacent to Iran, (such as the Gulf States, Jordan, and even Iraq), to do all they can to help support those attempting to bring down the despicable regime from within. He stressed that most educated Iranians oppose Ahmedinejad’s plans and should the regime be overthrown the moderate Iranian voices would immediately cease funding the likes of Hizbollah and Islamic Jihad and end the development of nuclear facilities designed for military purposes.

 
Earlier this afternoon I listened to a debate hosted by the excellent Gavin Esler on BBC World in which a number of Arab academics form the Arabian Gulf discussed the ‘Iranian problem’. It was surprising, but very reassuring to learn that the Gulf States are not a great deal less concerned by Iran’s development of nuclear weapons than we are here in Israel. They pointed out that the site of the nuclear development is on a well known fault line that is prone to seismic activity and where there is a history of minor and major earthquakes over the years. 

 
They Arab academics expressed fears that even a minor quake could release radioactivity into the Gulf and cause havoc to the populations in the area. Interestingly, when asked if they felt Israel was being melodramatic in  suggesting they could be the potential target of a nuclear attack, three out of four suggested that there were serious grounds for Israel to be  concerned and that if they were in Israel’s position it would be an incredibly
tough decision to make as to whether to sit back and wait - letting Iran
continue to close in on the completion of a nuclear warhead – or take unilateral action to neutralise the threat knowing full well that they could
stir up potential havoc in the region?

 
One point that was made though, and was that in the area adjacent to Iran genuine friends of the Islamic republic are rather thin on the ground these days. The Gulf States can’t stand the Iranian regime, Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey, who reached out to Iran a couple of years ago and promoted the idea of an Iranian/Turkish/Syrian axis, has realised he made a major boo-boo, with his two so-called ‘new best friends’ both now being returned to international pariah status. Turkey has hurriedly distanced itself from its foreign policy faux pas and has gone very quiet on that subject. Assad in Syria is too busy killing his own people and trying to save his own rather long neck –  am I the only person who sees a similarity between Assad and ‘Beaker’ from ‘The Muppet Show’ – and Iraq has no more an uneasy calm at the moment with the nation who not long ago killed more than a million of their own people.

 
The discussion ended with general consensus amongst the panellists, (who came from various different positions within the political spectrum in the Arab world), that Iran is in a bit of a pickle. Their only real trump card is oil and their control of the Straits of Hormuz, and the only way they might fight back against more sanctions is to impose a military blockade of the Straits, and lock down the transfer of more than 40% of the world’s oil to customers around the globe, thereby forcing up the price to an unbearable $200 a
barrel, a measure which might persuade European and American politicians to ease any sanctions they might impose.

 
It’s all a rather deadly game of political/nuclear poker, with the trump cards (do they have them in poker, I don’t play that game) being the potential intervention of either or both of Russia and China, who thus far have refused to condemn Iran too harshly, but who might change their tune if it affects their economic interests and creates a security headache for them.

 
I know I’m hardly Andrew Marr on John Simpson, but I hope this slight insight into the way things are being discussed in this part of the world
is of some interest to you.

Today’s Jerusalem Post reports on the growing argument being conducted in the Israeli mass media as to whether or not we should disregard the almost certain furious international condemnation and, more importantly, a possibly counter-reaction from Iran, should the Israeli Air Force bomb the nuclear development program being developed by the Islamic Republic.

 
International condemnation is nothing new for Israel so such a reaction is hardly a major consideration these days for the Netanyahu government, for the simple truth is that whilst many governments would publicly play to the home gallery in voicing outrage at such a devastating unilateral move, privately, (as has been revealed in many papers released by Wikileaks in the last year), many sympathise with the position that Iran’s now not-so-secret development of potential nuclear missiles is a huge danger to the whole of the Middle East and much further afield. 
 
 
Given Iranian president Ahmedinejad’s continued assertion that he wishes to remove Israel from the face of the earth, there are plenty of people with far more understanding of the situation on the ground than me, who assert
that a pre-emptive strike is the only way to neutralise what could be a potential catastrophe for the Jewish nation.

 
Benny Begin, son of the late Israeli leader Menachem Begin and a minister without portfolio from Netanyahu’s Likud party, spoke on Israel radio this very morning expressing his dismay that such a delicate and crucial matter
of state security is being discussed in detail in the full glare of the local
and international media. He cites all branches of the Israeli media as irresponsible, and is no less critical of parliamentary colleagues and respected former intelligence service personnel for publicly contributing to the debate. 
 
 
I am not well enough informed on the subject to decide whether or not such a strike would be the right or wrong thing to do, and just how credible the ranting Ahmedinejad’s claims of being very close to having nuclear capability are. What I would venture to suggest though is that if there is one
man in Israel who would be prepared to take such a decision it is undoubtedly Benjamin Netanyahu, whose disdain for international public opinion was once again demonstrated yesterday by his ordering 2000 new units to be built in the West Bank, a move that will certainly further raise the hackles of Israeli opponents and our Palestinian neighbours, whose premature and ill-judged recognition by UNESCO on Monday was the catalyst for Netanyahu’s unfortunate housing development decision.

 
Netanyahu has been convinced for more than 15 years that the greatest danger to Israel’s future lies in the Iranian threat. Back in 1997, as head of Israel’s first completely all-English language radio station, I was invited to a small press conference at the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem where Netanyahu was cosily ensconced during his first term in the top job.

 
The ongoing debate in Israel at the time was the perceived threat of chemical warfare from Iraq as Saddam Hussein threatened to bomb Israel for a second time - the first having been his Scud missile barrage in the Gulf War of 1991. Netanyahu pointed out that if the Iranian nuclear threat hadn’t been ‘neutralised ‘ by the destruction of their Osirak facility in 1981 by Israel - a move that provoked outrage in international circles at the time but as it later transpired may well have averted potential nuclear war in the region – the weapons sent into Israel nine years later could have been potentially devastating and that a tyrant like Hussein would have no conscience or thought for human life if he had such a weapon available to him. In 1997, he didn’t have any such weapons, and Netanyahu asserted that the Iraqi threat was not a credible one.

 
Netanyahu did however move the question on to deliver a chilling warning that the country that posed the biggest threat to Israel’s existence was not Iraq, but Iran. There were no inspection of Iranian facilities and their leadership was  almost certainly more disposed to causing mass casualties in Israel than any other in the region. He warned those present in the room not to be deceived by the relative distraction of the drum-beating Hussein.

 
I mention this incident only because I believe it demonstrates the long-held belief of the current Israeli PM who is reportedly working shoulder-to-shoulder with former Labour party leader and current Defence Minister Ehud Barak in considering whether or not a pre-emptive strike on Iran is a gamble worth taking. An attack on Iran by Israel is a frightening thought,
and one shudders to think what the reaction in this region and beyond might be. 

 
Then again, if Israel sits back and leaves a maniac like Ahmedinejad and those above him in the Iranian echelons of power - who frighteningly consider his policies as being not tough enough against Israel - to further develop their aggressive nuclear capability, one also shudders to think again what might be the consequences on the ground of an Iranian attack on Israel.



Sombre stuff I know, but judging by the growing public and private debates over here, there is an inevitable feeing that the time is growing ever closer when a decision one way or the other on this literally ‘life and death’ matter, will inevitably be made.


 
 
 

It’s hard to believe that already a year has passed since I sent greetings to all last Jewish New Year 5771. Now, on the eve of Jewish New Year 5772, we here in the Holy Land, Jews, Christians, Muslims, Druze, Bedouins and   more, are looking at an uncertain future. 


As the ‘Arab Spring’ fades and pundits predict a ‘Palestinian Autumn’, I don’t want to get political, I just want to wish everybody in this region and around the world peace, happiness and prosperity, and hope that we can all take time to look around us and see that none of us are going anywhere, so we have to find a way to get along together for the betterment of all, for all our families and especially, for our children.

 
Even more than last September we face a momentous year ahead. I’ll continue to send my regular missives outlining my thoughts and opinions on
the matters in hand, and hope that you continue to listen to or read the blog in 5772.

 
Of course, my blog is not just about politics,(although I admit it has been very political of late), it’s about all things dear to me, so I want to pass on three recommendations to you for the near future.

 
First, go see the latest Woody Allen film ‘Midnight in Paris’. Although Woody hasn’t been in top form for much of the last decade, this movie has him right back on top of his game. He isn’t acting in it (much to my wife’s  delight), but he directs Owen Wilson who plays Gil, a romantic writer who goes to Paris for a little inspiration walking in the footsteps of great literary
figures such as Hemmingway, Scott Fitzgerald, and artists such as Picasso,
Gaugin and Toulouse-Lautrec. Wilson plays the lead in one of the most   beautifully photographed movies, with a truly charming and creative storyline, one of the best I’ve seen in a very long while.

 
The film is pure escapism, gently humorous, and is basically a romantic fairytale. The music (as always in Allen’s films), is a delight. Go see it and drift away – for an hour and a half, at least.


Second, go eat in Tel Aviv. I’ve eaten in many destination around   the world but am convinced that Tel Aviv offers the best variety and quality of   food I’ve ever had the pleasure of tasting. On Sunday, Paz and I spent 24 hours in and around the buzzing coastal city and had thee cracking meals. Lunch was taken in one of the worker’s restaurants (basic, home-cooked food) near the Carmel market. Grilled chicken, majadara, (rice with lentils), beef soup Tunisian style, delicious salads, and amazing ‘crumpet-like’ bread – and as we all know, there’s nothing like a bit of crumpet to put a smile on your face!

 
Dinner at the Thai House restaurant on the corner of Bograshov and Ben Yehuda was simply sensational. I reckon I know a little about genuine Thai cuisine having spent extended periods there over the years, and this is as   good as any Thai food I have ever tasted. And third, (for lunch the following
day), a trip to the rather poor Arab/Jewish town of Ramle, next to Lod, 20
minutes ride from Tel Aviv itself. A place mentioned in the most ancient
scriptures written on the Holy Land, but you won’t find any mention (or at
least, I don’t think you’ll find any mention in the ancients texts), of the
Maharaja Indian restaurant at 87 Herzl Street, opposite the city market.
Vegetarian Indian food of the highest quality in the most unprepossessing of
surroundings, but worth travelling a very long way to sample. If you’re ever in the area, go there for a warm welcome, the sight of Jews and Arabs living and working together in harmony, and stunning Indian food presented by Indian Jews originally of the Cochin region of the former British colony.

 
And finally, it’s more than six months since I made my last betting recommendation to you which was Long Run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. He won, and I hope you backed it. On Sunday, Europe’s biggest Flat race, the $4 million Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in Paris, will be run in front of a massive crowd of international racegoers who will flock to the Bois de Bologne to see the best horses in the world race over a mile-and-a-half.

 
I’ve watched all the trial races and followed the form closely and am convinced that the filly, (yes, I think a girl will beat the boys), called Sarafina will win the great race. She was very unlucky-in-running in last  year’s renewal when nearly knocked over two furlongs from home, but still
finished third, and this year has looked better than ever showing a stunning
turn of foot last time out to win easily. Owned and bred by HH The Aga Khan, the leader of the world’s Ismaili Muslim sect, I believe the French-trained four-year-old will triumph and recommend you have a couple of shekels on for an interest at odds of around 4/1; that’s 400% profit if our girl beats the other 18 runners. That’s Sarafina, my New Year’s present to you all – I  hope!

 
And that’s that. Once again, my best wishes to you and your families for a very ‘Happy, Healthy and Successful’ New Year.

Shana Tova,

 
Paul 


 
 

Watching the action unfold at the UN yesterday was a surreal experience, living as I do in a country that appears ever more isolated from the majority opinion of world nations.  Granted, Mahmoud Abbas was preaching to the converted, but his performance was surprisingly animated and commendable for a man who has repeatedly taken the art of dithering and indecisiveness to a new level. 


Watching the repeated standing ovations during his speech as he presented the Palestinian request to be given full recognition and statehood, you had to be impressed with the initiative the Palestinians have stolen from Israel in presenting their case, an initiative that was taken some years ago and to which (on the whole), successive Israeli governments have failed to respond
and present their case properly to the world.

 
The stubborn, short-sighted, and indolent Netanyahu administration has proved to be the most intransigent and regressive in blocking all realistic attempts at dialogue, believing as they do that ‘we are right, and they are wrong, so there’s nothing to talk about’. While Israel has a genuine case in many aspects of the argument, the Palestinians, presenting themselves very successfully as the innocents in this scenario, have clearly stolen a march and are overwhelmingly perceived as the good guys. Israel is seen as a bruising bully who deserves to get a bloody nose – if not more.

 
Netanyahu’s all too late response and his reliance on the US veto has done Israel no good it all. It has also done massive damage to the US, damage compounded by Netanyahu’s cringingly embarrassing “badge of  honour”comment to Barak Obama, after the US president had made it clear to the UN that he only sees a negotiated settlement as being the true route to peace, and that a unilateral declaration by the Palestinians is doomed to failure. That may well be true, but Netanyahu’s comment was cynically designed to paint Obama into a corner and outrage the Arab world. Obama had a fixed expression on his face when those words were spoken, and I’d like to bet ‘large’ that away from the public gaze Obama had harsh words with the Israeli PM about that exchange.

 
The argument appears to have been well and truly won by the Palestinians because Israel has ridiculously refused to robustly defend itself and point out the following; that the UN would be authorizing the creation (for the very first time in history) of a country that still has not given up on the  total destruction of its neighbour; whose government in Gaza (a government that rules, in the words of Abbas’ Fatah party “following a violent coup d’etat”), is supporting Al Qaeda, refuses to recognise the legitimacy of a two-state solution, denies the Holocaust ever happened, and has fired thousands of missiles into Israel with the intent to kill indiscriminately since Israel left the territory and gave them a chance to prove whether or not they have genuine peace aspirations.

 
Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the Fatah government in the West Bank, is no saint. He has denied the Holocaust, was (and still is) a major force in the PLO, (particularly at the time of many terrorist atrocities), and there are masses of question marks over human rights abuses within his Palestinian   Authority. That said, these days he remains a voice for calm amongst his people and has skilfully distracted world attention away from the hatred between Fatah in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza. The two factions despise each other so much that none other than Al Jazeera reported late last night that in Gaza, Hamas was furious with the ovation given Abbas’ speech and ordered all public television broadcasts to be cut. The sight of their arch-enemy (who they have  cleverly sought not to undermine at this point to further their own ends), getting a rapturous reception at the UN was more than they could bear! According to Al Jazeera, anyone caught watching the broadcast in a public place ended up doing so at the risk of being spirited away by Hamas thugs.



Whilst a deal with Fatah and the recognition of the Palestinians on the West Bank is necessary, (indeed I would very strongly argue is not before time), it is incumbent on the world to realize that Mahmud Abbas, in a desperate bid to gain ground on the issue has made a fatal mistake in getting back into bed with the Islamic fanatic that are Hamas. He will never be able to control them and they have cleverly used him as a pawn to further their own means. There were no Hamas officials sitting in the Palestinian ranks at the UN; even if he had wanted them there they would not have gone as they believe a two-state solution is treachery. In their view there should only be a one state solution – Palestine, at the expense of the existence of Israel and the lives of Israel’s citizens!

 
But Netanyahu’s government and PR have failed to sufficiently draw attention to the massive chasm within the ranks of the Palestinians and  have granted them an open goal in portraying themselves as united and prepared to work together for peace. If Bibi (Netanyahu) was clever, or if he had not so cynically saddled himself with so many loony right-wing coalition partners, he  could have so easily exposed the myth of the Palestinian argument by offering a three-state solution. Recognising a Palestinian state on the West Bank, but refusing to recognise the legitimacy of the terrorist Hamas regime in Gaza, would have forced the Palestinians hatred of each other out into the open and exposed their argument of a united people as a phoney. 

 
But he hasn’t, and the consequences of the US veto and Israel’s perception on the world stage as the oppressive bully mean that the reaction to a failed bid (for the time being) for statehood at the UN could well spark a significant downward spiral of violence in this region. To save the day Bibi must swallow his pride, turn his back on the fanatics within his own government and reach out to Abbas. He should stop building in the West Bank, and offer a real deal to those Palestinians in that area who most certainly deserve a state of their own. In return, Abbas must confirm that he and his people in the West Bank will turn their back on violence, will completely disassociate themselves from the terror regime in Gaza, will fully recognize Israel’s right to exist, and together embrace peace and isolate and expose the Iranian-backed Hamas as the true force of evil that stops a deal being done.



It’s a massive wish-list I know, and the odds of this or something similar being offered by Netanyahu are miniscule, but it seems to me the only way to move things forward and avoiding a violent confrontation or all-out war.


 

10 years since 9/11.

We all remember where we were when the first pictures of the hijacked plane hitting the Twin Towers was screened across the world. Paz and I had dropped in to visit my grandma for morning coffee and the three of us
watched in horror at what was unfolding before our eyes. It didn’t seem real. We saw the flames, the panic, people jumping to a certain death, and it seemed the end of the world was nigh.

 
My grandma had witnessed bombings and destruction during the Second World War, lived through and survived night-time Luftwaffe sorties and wondered if the world would ever return to normality and if she and my grandpa might be able to go back to their everyday lives; he as a simple tailor and she as a housewife and soon to be mother-of-two? They did survive, as have the
families of the victims of 9/11, but my grandparents, together with all their generation, never forgot what they had suffered, the same way New Yorkers and many people around the world will never forget 9/11.

 
I remember my grandpa telling me of the Luftwaffe bombing of Exeter in May, 1942. He told me that that particular year the weather was unusually mild and many people were down on the beach, swimming and making sandcastles. He had been stationed only about seven miles away at Chudleigh and was being trained along with his platoon, the 23rd Royal Field Artillery, for action across in France that spring. 

 
When the planes emerged out of the sky everyone looked up and started waving thinking they were RAF fighters, but then the livery of the German air force came into view and people panicked and ran for their lives. Bullets started strafing the beach and a number of people were hit. But they weren’t the target for these ‘angels of death’; the target was the city of Exeter. As my grandpa and others from the armed services tried to comfort the injured and the shocked, and cover up those beyond help, the Luftwaffe sent ‘fire and brimstone’ down onto the cathedral city of Exeter setting the city
ablaze and taking many lives. 

 
Sent along with his platoon to try and help rescue people from the rubble and burning wreckage of the beautiful city, those hours of desperate searching for survivors and the discovery of those who had lost their lives never left my grandpa’s memory. It was the worst thing he ever saw, but life had to go on and there was an enemy to be defeated.

 
Despite the many conspiracy theorists that have attempted to deflect the blame for the atrocities on 9/11 from Islamic fundamentalist terrorists and blame variously the US government itself, MI6, and of course, the Israeli secret services, most clear thinking people know that Al Qaeda was behind what happened in New York and Washington on that darkest of days. But fighting the enemy in the 21st century is in many ways far more difficult than the task faced by the Allied forces against the evil of the Nazis and the Japanese in the 1940’s. There is no army to pin down on a battlefield and defeat blow by blow. The enemy in this second decade of the century is spread around the world, small pockets of dedicated, determined and religiously brainwashed individuals who on their own can cause as much death and destruction as did an entire Luftwaffe squadron in the 1940’s.



This is a very difficult fight to win. Indeed, it might never be won, but it might be contained if intelligence  agencies and governments from around the world pool their resources and knowledge and do everything possible to help each other combat the enemy both  external and within. Since the fall of Mubarak in Egypt it appears that Al Qaeda and associated groups have been handed free passage to Gaza where their ideology is viewed more than sympathetically by the Hamas government, one half of the Palestinian Authority double act that seeks to gain recognition from the UN later this month for an independent state.



Would you want to give these people total control over freedom of movement through their borders, knowing  full well where their sympathies lie? More to the point, if they lived just down the road from you, your family and your friends, would you be happy to see them  recognised by the international community, a community amongst whom many have suffered at the hands of Islamic terrorism and are still fighting a daily intelligence battle to foil more terrorist plots?



As the world remembers the events of 9/11 and wonders if it can ever happen again, the plain and simple answer is ‘Yes’, it can and most likely will happen again if people who support terrorism and seek to wipe another country off the face of the map are handed the gift of international support in the hope it might appease them and make life a little quieter in the short term.



A Palestinian state that recognises Israel, lays down its arms and seeks genuine peace and co-operation is something we should all earnestly strive for. No-one deserves it more than the downtrodden, decent Palestinian majority themselves who have been manipulated time and again by their own leadership and by so-called Arab allies in the region for their own needs. But until those in charge truly set out on a path of peace, recognition by the UN should not be given. Haven’t we learned the lesson of recent history that trying to palm off those seeking to wipe out their neighbours is only staving off the inevitable? Chamberlain’s cowardly declaration on returning from Berlin in 1939 that he had achieved “peace in our time” could well be repeated if the UN endorses recognition of Palestinian statehood at this time.



The fight against fundamentalist terror and violence has already been carried o the streets of New York, London,
Madrid, Mumbai and many other major population centres. It should be made clear to all terror organizations and terrorists regimes that if they truly want to achieve recognition they should hang a ‘No Entry’ sign on their national borders and refuse to harbour, aid and abet those intending to commit terrorist
atrocities in the name of religion, or any other so called
‘cause’.



Heavy stuff I know, but this tenth anniversary really should be a time of serious reflection on what has to be done to secure a safer future for us all in places where our lives could irreparably be damaged if terrorism is not beaten back and defeated.